Once again my picks went two for three. Dang you, Jonathan Schoop!
Now that we’re one and a half months into the season, I’m going to start looking more into player’s tendencies and statistical odds. Basically, I’m going to choose some of my predictions on the law of averages.
We’ll get right to it! My three MLB prop picks are below!
Prop Pick: Tyler Glasnow
Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts – UNDER (100 points)
Tyler Glasnow has been a dominant pitcher this season, posting an ERA of 2.37 and having multiple games with double digit strikeouts.
Recently, though, he has been giving up a few more hits and walks each game. On the positive side, he still is getting a ton of K’s.
So why am I choosing the under? Because of his opponent, the Mets. They currently have the fewest strikeouts in the league.
Now you may be thinking, “Wait, they Mets had a lot of games postponed to start the season, so that stat is invalid!”
That may be true, so how about this: on a per-game basis, the Mets strikeout 8.09 times per game, which is second lowest in the league behind The Astros.
Nine or more strikeouts by a pitcher is a lot. Glasnow has the ability to do it, but I don’t think it will happen against the Mets.
Prop Pick: Mike Trout
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Over/Under 0.5 RBIs – OVER (110 points)
If you follow any amount of baseball, you know Mike Trout is good. No surprise this year, he’s having another good season.
Currently Trout is on a four game streak without an RBI. While that doesn’t seem like a long stretch for a normal player, Trout isn’t a normal player.
Four games without an RBI is the longest stretch this season for him to not have one. I went back to look, and he hasn’t gone more than four games without an RBI since June 2019!
Trout also got the day off on Wednesday, and the Angels had a travel day on Thursday. So I think two days of rest should allow Trout to come back ready to pop some runs.
Prop Pick: Trey Mancini
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Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases – UNDER (85 Points)
Once again, there isn’t a third prop I truly love, but it worked out well on Tuesday.
This is Trey Mancini’s fourth full season, and so far he seems to be on pace for his averages. So far, he has had 18 games with 1.5 or more total bases out of a possible 37 games, which is actually a fairly good average.
Remember I said I’m going off the law of averages? Well, in two of Mancini’s last three games, he’s had two hits and either a double or a home run.
You could argue he’s getting hot, but I’m sticking to his averages and banking on him hitting a single at best.
If you would like more content from Charlie “Chip,” you can check out the sports podcast he co-hosts via LinkTree
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