What an Opening Day.
The games (for the most part) were great, the individual performances were great and our Thrive Fantasy lineup was great.
Outside of a late postponement of Boston-Baltimore and us subsequently not being able to play Xander Bogaerts, our picks highlighted yesterday both hit. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. both nailed their Overs, and you just love to see it.
Moving forward this season, we’re going to be targeting players that are either consistent performers against that day’s starting pitcher or who have crazy splits against right or left-handed pitching. When targeting pitchers, we’re looking to play against weak lineups.
Let’s move on to today’s selections.
0.5 RBIs @ Colorado — OVER (115 PTS)
Antonio Senzatela is on the mound for Colorado, and you can see Cody Bellinger salivating from here (or there, or wherever you are when reading this). Bellinger historically feasts against righties, and he would have had a home run on his ledger yesterday had Justin Turner not made an oopsie.
All Bellinger needs is an RBI to hit the Over, and playing in Colorado naturally leads to more run production. Given his placement in the Dodgers lineup and the overwhelmingly talented supporting cast around him, Bellinger should often step to the plate with runners on base.
Another note: In 2019, Bellinger was fourth in MLB with an ISO of .324, according to FanGraphs. Bellinger hits the ball over the fence, and for extra bases with frequency. There are RBI chances ahead.
Play the Over.
1.5 HITs + RBIs @ Los Angeles Angels — OVER (120 PTS)
It’s an exceptionally small sample size, and one that you can almost just throw away, but Yoan Moncada is 3-for-5 in his career against Angels starter Andrew Heaney.
Some outside of Chicago may have soured on Moncada after a terrible 2020 season, but let’s not forget his breakout 2019 campaign. Moncada is still young, and ups and downs can be expected. He started off 2021 on the right foot, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk. That’s the start of a potentially big year.
Moncada has too much potential to play like he did last season, and with an incredible White Sox lineup around him, he should see plenty of pitches to hit and have plenty of chances to drive runners in. And Heaney isn’t exactly a shutdown lefty arm.
Take the Over.
2.5 BASEs @ Oakland — OVER (130 PTS)
Carlos Correa is just 1-for-5 in his career against young starter Jesus Luzardo, but Correa has traditionally done a lot of his damage at the plate against lefties.
In 2020, he hit .279 against southpaws — a number down from 2019, when he hit .308 against them, and 2018, when he hit .286. In 2019, he also posted a ridiculous .289 ISO against lefties.
All Correa needs to do is put a ball over the fence to hit this prop, though a double and a single would suffice, too. Correa’s always swinging for the fences, so it’s just a matter of time until he runs into one.
Play the Over.
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