Opening day is almost here! America’s National Pastime is set to kickoff a full (fingers crossed) season of 162 games!
If you followed any of my NFL prop articles, you may be expecting my favorite picks and fades. For the MLB regular season, I’m only going to present three props that I like for each contest.
Prop Pick: Shane Bieber
O/U 7.5 Strikeouts – OVER (100 points)
Last season’s unanimous American League Cy Young Award winner starts the season off against the mediocre Detroit Tigers. Even though the Tigers have a new manager, I don’t expect good things from them – yet.
In last year’s shortened season, Bieber had 12 starts. In all 12 of his starts, he had eight or more strikeouts, including double digit strikeouts in his two games against Detroit.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s hitters had the sixth most strikeouts in the league last season.
The Tigers may show some promise at points this year, but they have a tough Opening Day matchup, and I expect Bieber to roll through this lineup.
Prop Pick: Nolan Arenado
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O/U 1.5 Total (Hits + Runs + RBIs) – OVER (90 points)
After signing an 8 year/ $260,000,000 deal with The Colorado Rockies in 2019, they decided to trade him this off-season after only two years into that new contract.
There are a lot of details of the trade that I won’t get into. The main thing is now St. Louis has a premier third baseman still in his prime looking to add some power to the lineup.
Arenado is projected to bat in the three spot in the lineup, which makes this prop even more enticing.
Historically, it seems when a top player joins a new team in the off-season, they either start the season very cold or very hot. I’m banking on the latter and expect Arenado to show off his hitting skills early for the Cardinals.
Prop Pick: José Abreu
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O/U 0.5 Home Runs – OVER (140 points)
Since I talked about the American League Cy Young winner, I figured I better mention the reigning American League MVP as well.
While the odds are never in favor of someone hitting a home run in a game, I like Abreu’s chances here.
In last year’s shortened season, Abreu was second behind Luke Voit for most home runs in the league with 19. He did this in 240 at-bats, which equates to roughly 7.9% chance of a home run per at-bat.
Again, not great odds. We’ll factor in Abreu’s at-bats per game, which is roughly four at-bats per game. This brings his home run chance per game (based on last year’s stats) to 31.6%.
Lots of math here. If you’re not a fan of math, then I’ll just tell you picking the under on this prop is only 60 points. I don’t see a fun reason to pick the under, and for that reason, I like the over.
If you would like more content from Charlie “Chip,” you can check out the sports podcast he co-hosts via LinkTree.
Head on over to ThriveFantasy and build your lineup for our $20 MLB Opening Day – $10,000 Guaranteed Contest!