Did everyone enjoy the NBA Trade Deadline?
There was more activity than ever, with players changing teams about as often as Kyrie Irving breaks ankles. With the players now with their new teams, it’s up to us to monitor their impacts and how they’re meshing with new teammates. Players don’t always enter a new scenario and produce, after all.
So for the time being, we’re going to be staying away from guys who just traded places. Maybe for a week or so. Let’s see them play three or so games with their new squads before projecting how they’ll perform every night.
But those are guys we aren’t playing. Here’s who we are targeting Monday night.
11.5 REBS @ Washington — OVER (110 PTS)
Washington plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and is tied for 24th in rebounding rate, meaning not only should Domantas Sabonis have an abundance of chances for rebounds, but he should also have an abundance of uncontested chances.
Sabonis is a rebounding machine, ranking seventh in the league with 11.3 per game. For the purposes of this prop, he’s posted 12 rebounds or more 17 times this season (or 39 percent of the time).
No Thomas Bryant and no Davis Bertans for Washington also means the Wizards lack sizable depth down low outside of Alex Len and Robin Lopez, both of whom aren’t accomplished rebounders.
Sabonis is something of a unicorn, as few in the league can match his size and ability all over the floor. You’ll get 110 points if he nabs at least 12 boards, and while that might not seem like a risk, I’m very comfortable making this play tonight.
23.5 PTS vs. Chicago — OVER (110 PTS)
Chicago plays fast and doesn’t play a ton of defense. Enter: Andrew Wiggins.
A sometimes streaky scorer, Wiggins has been excellent in March. He’s averaging 21.3 points per game and shooting 53.6 percent (not a typo) from beyond the arc this month. He’s had at least 24 points in three of the last five games, including a 40-point outburst on March 19.
Wiggins last played Chicago on Dec. 27. He dropped 19 in that game, but he also shot 6 of 15 from the floor.
His opportunities should increase Monday with Stephen Curry likely out with a tailbone injury, so someone will have to do the bulk of the scoring for Golden State. Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. stand to take the largest steps forward in Curry’s absence.
Take Wiggins’ Over, but look to adjust if Curry somehow takes the floor.
30.5 PTS + REBS vs. Cleveland — OVER (95 PTS)
Rudy Gobert had a 28-rebound game earlier this month. That’s an outlier and not the norm, but let’s be honest here. Gobert has 20-rebound upside every single game, giving him a clear path to hitting his Over Monday night.
Few players in the league have 20-20 potential like the Jazz center. Cleveland is modest defensively and slightly below league average in terms of rebounding rate, plus the Cavaliers won’t be able to match Gobert’s size with Jarrett Allen sidelined because of a concussion.
There isn’t much more analysis needed here. You aren’t getting a ton of points for a correct pick, but it looks like an easy way to obtain 95 points. Take the Over.
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