It’s a modest eight-game NBA slate tonight, I’m kicking off the week with a fair bit of opportunity in prop plays.
A fan-favorite rookie was lost for the season on Sunday, as LaMelo Ball will reportedly miss the remainder of the campaign with a fractured wrist. The Rookie of the Year favorite had become a personal favorite of mine in daily fantasy, and while his absence will hurt the Hornets more than it will hurt fantasy managers, it does create interesting opportunity for those who will now step in and play larger roles while he’s out.
The Hornets play the Spurs tonight, and though I’m avoiding Charlotte for the time being, I’ll be closely monitoring the team’s situation in order to make more informed personnel decisions as the rest of the season unfolds.
Let’s jump into who we’re playing tonight.
30.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS @ Houston — OVER (105 PTS)
Lowry plays big minutes, so even though he’s not an efficient scorer, he plays long enough to accrue counting stats. That’s what we’re counting on against a Houston team that plays at the fifth-highest pace in the NBA.
Lowry’s assist numbers have been astronomical in March, with individual games of 19, 15 and 12 dimes this month already. We aren’t banking on that, of course, but the fact that it’s happened three times in a short period means there’s big potential there. He’s also consistently scoring in the mid-to-high teens, so that production alone puts him close to this prop.
I think Houston provides a soft matchup for Lowry and the Raptors to have a decent offensive night. I’m playing the Over.
10.5 REBS vs. Sacramento — OVER (110 PTS)
Jarrett Allen is averaging 10.9 rebounds per game in March with just two single-digit outings (both happened to be seven-rebound games). In his last game, the 6-11 center hauled in 15 rebounds in a win over Toronto.
Sacramento isn’t a rebounding juggernaut, with Richaun Holmes and Hassan Whiteside the primary threats to a big night from Allen. The Kings are No. 21 in the NBA in rebounding rate, a stat that measures the percentage of missed shots a team rebounds. Cleveland is a bit higher at an even 50 percent.
But Allen alone is a force on the glass, and he’s capable of blowing right past 11 rebounds on any given night.
I’m taking the upside and playing the Over.
19.5 PTS @ Los Angeles Clippers — OVER (110 PTS)
John Collins is efficient from the field, consistent from the line and plays roughly 30 minutes per game. Even against the Clippers (a respectable defensive team), Collins should have a path to a strong night offensively.
Against the Clippers on Jan. 26, Collins had one of his worst offensive showings of the season. In 35 minutes, he scored just 11 points on 4 of 11 shooting. I look at that as more of an outlier than a trend.
With defensive staples Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka out for the game, the Hawks as a whole should have an easier path to points. Collins certainly will.
Play the Over.
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