Paul George and Kyle Kuzma performed as expected last night, as George was held way Under and Kuzma produced just enough to hit his Over. Ja Morant, meanwhile, continues to be a volatile source of anything but points.
Maybe we back off Morant when it comes to rebounds and assists for the time being, in large part because so much of his output in those categories is unpredictable. Volatility is a bettors’ worst enemy, so let’s not put ourselves in that position again.
As we move on to Tuesday, there are a handful of intriguing plays. Let’s get right into it.
14.5 PTS vs. New Orleans — OVER (110 PTS)
Carmelo Anthony has been on a tear in March, averaging 20.3 points per game with just one performance under 16 points — a 13-point game against Phoenix.
He looks reinvigorated, taking 14 shots per game and converting on exactly half of them this month. He’s shooting a tick under 40 percent from beyond the arc and 92 percent from the free-throw line, plus he’s playing almost 29 minutes per night.
He played only 20 minutes in one game against New Orleans this season, a game in which he scored 12 points. This looks like easy money if he gets the same playing time he’s gotten in six March games.
This is the first prop I locked in because it looks too good to be true. Play the Over.
9.5 REBS @ Houston — OVER (115 PTS)
An incredibly frustrating rebounder, John Collins has just 11 double-digit rebounding games this season. We mentioned avoiding volatility above, but I’m not convinced Collins is volatile there. I think it’s all dictated by matchup.
Against Houston, Collins should have a path to at least 10 boards. With Christian Wood out, Collins will face some combination of Justin Patton and Kenyon Martin Jr., neither of whom should threaten him down low.
This is a move entirely based on personnel, not so much Collins’ skill set, so I can see how it might go awry. But as long as this isn’t a massive blowout, Collins should be on the floor enough for at least 10 boards.
Let’s take the risk and go Over.
11.5 REBS + ASTS @ Portland — OVER (105 PTS)
Portland is not good defensively. If you read this column every day, you know I try to target players against the Blazers. Knowing this, Williamson has a better track to a handful of assists than he normally might.
And because of his physicality, Williamson should be good for anywhere between 6-9 boards in a matchup like this. We’d obviously love the higher end (and possibly even more than that to make our lives easier), but this is an attainable combo prop tonight.
He had 6 rebounds and 4 assists against Portland on Feb. 17 in 34 minutes, and it would be fair for you to read that line and not have confidence in the rematch tonight. Enes Kanter is still down there for Portland as a rebounding ace, but Jusuf Nurkic and Harry Giles III are out, so maybe Williamson can sneak in there for a few more boards than usual.
Recognizing the risk, I’m taking the Over.
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