Stephen Curry performed like we thought he would against Portland, exceeding his prop and giving us the Over. Our other two picks — Kyrie Irving and Brandon Ingram — underperformed.
Ingram’s was not a process mistake, as he wound up playing just 25 minutes in a three-point game. That was the fewest number of minutes he played in a game this season, so it’s reasonable that he could have reached his prop had he played another 8-10 minutes.
Irving was 4.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS shy of reaching his prop. It was a blowout win over Houston, so perhaps we can chalk it up to that.
Regardless, we’re back at it Thursday night in the last night of action before the All-Star break. Let’s go into the break on a high note.
16.5 REBS + ASTS @ New Orleans — OVER (105 PTS)
Bam Adebayo has had double-digit rebounds in nine of his last 11 games, and he eclipsed 16.5 REBS + ASTS in half of those 12 contests. Adebayo is an adept passer at center who has posted multiple double-digit assist games this season.
This is an upside play against a New Orleans team that is the second-worst team in the league defensively, giving Adebayo more opportunities than normal for assists. New Orleans is the best rebounding team, though, so Adebayo won’t come across rebounds easily.
Way back in December, Adebayo had four rebounds and two assists in a subpar game against New Orleans. He’s going for more tonight. Play the Over.
7.5 REBS @ Washington — OVER (110 PTS)
We targeted Washington earlier this week by choosing Jonas Valanciunas’ Over on rebounds, and we’re doing it again with Kawhi Leonard. The superstar averaged 7.8 rebounds per game in February, and he closed the month with at least nine boards in three of the last five games.
Outside of Russell Westbrook, nobody on the Wizards can rebound. And while Westbrook is an athletic match for Leonard, I think he’ll have the advantage on the glass. On Feb. 23, Leonard had seven rebounds against Washington in a blowout win, so it’s reasonable for him to exceed that mark in a closer game.
Leonard has placed more emphasis on rebounding as the season has progressed, with his per-game totals rising each month. Maybe he’ll kick off March with a big night.
16.5 PTS vs. Golden State — OVER (110 PTS)
Golden State plays at the second-fastest pace in the league, and Chris Paul can still run the floor. CP3 scored 13 against Golden State in late January, but he was inefficient and didn’t get to the free-throw line.
Paul is not the scorer he once was, but he has his moments. In February, he scored more than 16 points six times, and while he tends to defer more often than not at this point in his career, Paul can still pick apart a defense that leaves itself vulnerable.
I’m playing Paul’s Over tonight because the risk is worth the reward. We’re not asking him to drop 20-plus points. If he scores 17, we get 110 PTS to add to our ledger. I like those odds.
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