It was our biggest risk from Thursday night that paid off, as Eric Bledsoe scored 16 points to hit his Over.
Russell Westbrook finished with 10 rebounds and 10 assists, falling just one (of either) shy of reaching his Over. James Harden fell well short of his mark, though it was a blowout game and he wasn’t needed in an as many high-leverage situations as the Nets might normally use him in.
Tonight, we’re taking a couple small risks on this nine-game slate. I think the Charlotte-Golden State game offers several opportunities for high-upside plays, which is why we’re playing two guys from that contest.
Best of luck tonight, boys and girls. Let’s get after it.
17.5 REBS + ASTS vs. Charlotte — OVER (105 PTS)
This is my lock-in play of the night.
Draymond Green has posted double-digit assists in eight of his 12 games in February, and he’s exceeded 17.5 REBS + ASTS in eight of 12 games (not necessarily the same eight). Few players in the NBA know their roles better than Green, who doesn’t take risks on offense and instead looks to be the glue player that makes the Warriors go.
Especially at this point in his career, Green is an asset on the glass and in transition. He’s an adept passer and someone who can go for 10 or more dimes on a given night. Given that consistency, I’m banking on this being a hit.
Play Draymond’s Over.
6.5 ASTS @ Golden State — OVER (100 PTS)
We played LaMelo Ball earlier this week, and the decision paid dividends. We don’t need to rehash everything here, but I will reiterate this one point — there are few players in the league right now with the creativity and court vision of Ball.
This might seem like an overreaction based off Ball’s start to his NBA career, but let’s acknowledge a budding star when we see one. Ball certainly has his flaws, but he’s willing to take risks when passing the ball. And while he might take 15 shots per game (sometimes not great shots, either), he’s also apt to defer and pass the ball more than some other volume shooters.
He’s a double-digit assist candidate every night, and he might have to have a crazy game to keep up with Stephen Curry and the Warriors. I’m banking on upside with Ball — always.
14.5 PTS vs. Portland — OVER (110 PTS)
Kyle Kuzma has been wildly inefficient in his last three games, posting shooting percentages of 38.1, 31.3 and 28.6 percent, respectively. He managed 23 points in that first game and then 14 in the next one, but he only scored five points on Wednesday.
There’s an easy path to the Over here. Yes, his percentages are bad, but he’s taking 12 or more shots on a given night. He’s also attempted 25 three-pointers in the last three games, and even if he only hits 25 percent of those, that’s still a very safe floor.
He hardly ever gets to the line, so his production will have to come from the field. Luckily he plays Portland on Friday, and the Trail Blazers are a sieve on defense. Kuzma should have no problem finding his opportunities and knocking them down.
Play the Over.
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