Tonight’s slate is an interesting one.
The way I see it, there aren’t many high-end plays worth paying consideration to. Many of the point totals we’re targeting tonight are on the safer side, if only because the props that can grant us a higher point total just don’t seem realistic.
If people also see it the way I do, that means there will be many similar plays within Thrive Fantasy contests on this slate. That’s OK. All we need to do is make sure we’re making the correct selections on these players.
Let’s get after it tonight.
22.5 PTS + ASTS @ Phoenix — OVER (100 PTS)
Are we really going to sweat this one?
The rookie playing 34.5 minutes per game and taking 16.9 shots per night in February. He’s not particularly efficient, but Charlotte is giving him the freedom to take as many shot as he wants. He’s 91.3 percent from the free-throw line this month, too. All of this is to say his points floor is exceptionally high.
Ball’s passing ability and innate instincts seeing the floor make him a double-digit assist candidate every game. He doesn’t need many here to help hit the Over, but I’m banking on at least five dimes from him against the Suns.
There isn’t much risk here, which is why we’re only getting 100 points for a correct selection, but this prop looks too good to be true. I’m slamming this Over and not thinking twice about it.
12.5 REBS + ASTS @ Chicago — OVER (85 PTS)
Normally, I wouldn’t even consider a prop that’s awarding less than 100 points — especially just 85 points.
But we’re asking Karl-Anthony Towns to get just 12.5 REBS + ASTS? That’s easily attainable, even on the off chance Minnesota-Chicago turns into a one-way affair. He’s finished Over 12.5 in nine of the 12 games he’s played this season. Because he’s both a steady rebounder and advanced passer for his position, he can go for double-digits in either category on a given night.
Towns hasn’t suited up against Chicago this season, but the Bulls provide Towns with a nice opportunity. They play at a high pace and play a pretty forgiving style of defense. It’s hard to ignore Towns on this slate, even if the point total doesn’t automatically catch your eye.
Play the Over.
28.5 PTS + REBS vs. San Antonio — UNDER (105 PTS)
In his only game against San Antonio this season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander recorded 20 points and nine rebounds. That rebound total is not one we should expect too often from Gilgeous-Alexander, and so I’m not banking on it tonight.
Where SGA can kill us here is in points. He’s capable of strong showing on that front, actually surpassing 28 points three times this month. San Antonio is a reasonably good defensive team, though, and plays at a pace that won’t blow anyone away.
SGA has drastically improved this year, and betting against him might seem foolish. But we need to make a play that will reward us more than 100 points to keep up with the rest of the pack, and this is the one I’m most confident in. Again, I’m taking the under here because I don’t trust his rebounding. He can score 25 points and still not go Over because of it.
Take the risk. Take the Under.
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