Happy Monday, friends. Let’s start the week off with a bang.
We get our NBA fix tonight with a six-game slate, though it’s admittedly not a slate that jumps off the page. Let me explain. Are there good games with presumably close matchups? Sure. But very few of the individual player props are particularly enticing. Kudos to you, Thrive Fantasy overlords, for making it hard on us.
With that being the case, I’m looking to two guys who have been scorching hot over the past week and another player I’m still not too confident in despite the recent trends.
Here’s who we’re playing tonight.
41.5 PTS + REBS vs. Memphis — OVER (100 PTS)
Luka Doncic has been absolutely unconscious lately. He’s averaging 33.1 points per game in February with three outings of 42 points or more in his last five games. He’s at least seven rebounds in every game since that initial 42-point outing on Feb. 6, too.
He’s shot at least 50 percent from the field in four of the last five games, attempted at least seven three-pointers in each of the last five games and and gotten to the free-throw line at least nine times in each of those five games, too. Sorry for the bullet point list here, as you can look it up yourself on his game log. But here’s my point — his floor is exceptionally high right now.
Few players in the league have as easy a path to 35-plus points as Doncic does, and that’s what we’re asking him for here. He’s capable of stellar rebounding performances, but he’s much more apt to fall between 7-10 boards than he is to go off for 15.
Memphis is a middle-of-the-road team in terms of pace, defensive efficiency and rebounding rate, giving Doncic a path of very little resistance. Lock in the young star’s Over.
40.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS @ Utah — OVER (105 PTS)
Now on to the second player in this column who is scorching hot right now. He’s averaging 28.6 points per game in February after producing 17.1 per game in January. His minutes are up ever so slightly, but this is really about opportunity and efficiency.
He’s taking more shots per game this month (18.4 compared to 13.6 last month) and converting more often (55.8 to 44.6). He’s even on a hot streak at the free-throw line, where he’s hitting 95.8 percent of his attempts. He’s produced at least 33 points in each of the last four games.
A 30-point game gives Rozier an easy floor to work from here. He’s consistently getting 3-5 assists, and while his range of rebounds is a bit larger, there’s potential for him to hit his Over with relative ease.
Utah is good defensively, but it’s hard to ignore this stretch from Rozier. I’m playing his Over.
14.5 PTS + ASTS vs. Portland — OVER (100 PTS)
One of the golden rules of player props is to avoid players with so much variance that it’s difficult to predict their outcome on a given night. We’re defying that rule here.
Jae Crowder has been all over the map lately, playing 15 minutes in a one-point win to start the month and recently playing 31 minutes in a four-point loss. His scoring numbers have ranged from 2-20 points in February with five games of single-digit points. So why are we taking the Over?
Crowder’s minutes are trending in the right direction. He’s played at least 20 minutes in five straight games, and the only reason he played 20 in the most recent game is because it was a blowout win. He’s been a little erratic from the field, but in the last five games, he’s averaging 9.2 shots per game.
He’s usually reliable for between 2-4 assists per game, too, and against a Portland defense that is — simply put — atrocious, Crowder could have any easy path to success here.
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