Last night was … tough.
Jimmy Butler finished well under 21.5 points, and Malcolm Brogdon blew past his prop of 21.5 points. At least Steven Adams fell well short of 17.5 PTS + REBS like I expected, but it’s hard to crack into the money when two of your three main picks don’t work out.
I don’t regret the Butler pick, but looking back, I should have expected more from Brogdon — especially against Minnesota. A team that struggles defensively like the T’Wolves can be easily picked apart, and Brogdon is a massive part of Indiana’s offense.
We learn from it and don’t make the same mistake twice. On to Thursday’s mini three-game slate.
23.5 PTS + REBS vs. Brooklyn — OVER (100 PTS)
Brooklyn’s playing, so find the opposing player with a points prop and smash the Over. The added bonus here is that we get to factor rebounds into the decision, too.
With Anthony Davis out with a calf injury, I expect Montrezl Harrell to see a minutes boost. He played just 18 minutes in his last game, but he had 17 points and six boards in that short amount of time. What should we expect in 25-plus minutes, especially against Brooklyn?
Harrell only has two games of double-digit rebounds this season, but he consistently produces between five and eight boards. That’s all we need. Harrell’s pretty good at getting to the free-throw line and is a highly efficient scorer (64.6 percent), so he has a really safe floor in terms of points.
I’m banking on Davis’ absence creating more opportunities on the offensive side as time goes on. If Harrell proves himself in a big game against Brooklyn, he’ll be a player I continue to target moving forward. Play the Over.
34.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS @ Sacramento — OVER (105 PTS)
An integral piece of the offense in Miami, especially in the last two games, Bam Adebayo will continue to be leaned on. Miami’s offense is quite inefficient on the whole (104.9 points per 100 possessions, 25th in the NBA), and Adebayo’s field goal percentage of 57.3 percent is at least something that Heat can rely on.
He’s a double-double threat every night, and when defenses crash down low to meet him in the paint, he’s shown the vision to dish out and find his open shooters. It’s just up to them to knock down the shots. Which, again, hasn’t been particularly often this year based on their offensive efficiency.
Sacramento, however, is the worst defensive team in the NBA, allowing 115.9 points per 100 possessions. This sets Adebayo up for a big night offensively and possibility a big night in the assist category. And we know rebounding is never a problem for the athletic, 6’9″ center.
Take the Over.
Marvin Bagley III
6.5 REBS vs. Miami — UNDER (110 PTS)
Marvin Bagley III is not yet a polished rebounder, and against a team with a competent big like Bam Adebayo, I’m not sure Thursday is the night for him to post big totals in that category.
He played Miami once this year, bringing in four rebounds in just under 26 minutes. He actually contributes fewer than seven rebounds pretty frequently, especially in his last 10 games. Only three times in that span has he gotten more than six.
Another important note here is that Bagley is averaging just under 25 minutes per game this season, not giving him much floor time to accumulate counting stats. If he plays 30-plus minutes, maybe he exceeds 6.5 boards. I’m not confident he will, and that’s why I’m taking the Under.
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