Super Bowl LV is just days away! As of writing, this Super Bowl has the third highest combined implied total in Super Bowl history with the O/U at 56 points! We should be in store for quite a bit of scoring!
Below, I’m going to present two of my favorite prop picks, along with one pick that I am avoiding (“fading”).
Favorite Prop: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City QB
O/U 27.5 completions – OVER (115 points)
Look, 28 or more completions is a lot to ask for, which is why picking the over is worth so many points. Mahomes has accomplished that many completions only six times this year in a total of 18 games.
Of the six games where Mahomes would beat this over, all six were against defenses that ranks in the bottom half for most completions allowed. Meaning these teams allowed the most completions.
So where does Tampa Bay rank? They allowed the second most completions all season! While completions allowed by a defense seems arbitrary, it at least holds some value.
In Week 12 when the Chiefs played the Bucs, Mahomes had 37 completions, which was his season high. This combined with Tampa Bay’s #1 rush defense is why I’m picking the over.
Favorite Prop: Darrel Williams, Kansas City RB
O/U 48.5 Rushing Yards – UNDER (100 points)
The Chiefs have been relying on Williams as their main RB for the playoffs. In their two playoff games this season, he has 26 total carries. In the 13 regular season games he appeared in this year, he totaled only 39 carries, which is just three per game!
Clyde Edwards-Helaire sat out the final two games of the regular season and missed the Divisional Round playoff game against Cleveland due to an ankle and hip injury. He came back in the Conference Championship against Buffalo, but was very limited, which resulted in more work for Williams.
Edwards-Helaire is back to practicing fully and is currently not listed on the injury report. This news, along with the fact the Buccaneers rank #1 in rush defense, leads me to picking the under for Williams.Embed from Getty Images
Favorite Fade: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay WR
O/U 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Last time I picked O/U 0.5 TDs for a Tampa WR, I picked Mike Evans getting under in the NFC Championship game. That pick lasted about 4 minutes into the game before Evans scored.
The Chiefs are rather tough against opposing WRs, and Tom Brady has a lot of weapons. Evans is the clear red zone target for Brady, and when you throw in Rob Gronkowski plus the other receivers, it doesn’t leave a lot of exposure for Godwin.
As I’ve mentioned in the past, I usually shy away from someone scoring a single touchdown. This one is a true toss-up, and for that reason, I’m fading.
That does it for my final “Favorite Picks/Fades” for the NFL season! I’ll be back for the MLB season once that begins!
If you would like more content from Charlie “Chip,” you can check out the sports podcast he co-hosts via LinkTree.
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