We’re licking our wounds a little bit after last night, as Luka Doncic blew past his prop for the Over (we called Under) and DeMarcus Cousins laid an egg and finishing Under (we called Over).
Tonight’s a new night.
It always comes down to process when analyzing mistakes, acknowledging where we might have gone wrong in our decision-making. When it comes to Cousins, it would have been wise to put more stock in his limited minutes. And for Doncic, he’s almost a walking triple-double, so why wouldn’t he rack up assists and rebounds?
We learn from this and move on. Let’s start a new streak Thursday.
25.5 PTS + REBS vs. Utah — OVER (100 PTS)
An efficient scorer who plays big minutes, John Collins is in a prime spot to hit his Over. He’s scored 20 points or more in four of his last six games, nabbing at least seven rebounds in each of those six games, too.
With DeAndre Hunter out with a knee injury and without a clear timetable of when he’ll return at this point, Collins should continue to have a slightly expanded role in the offense. Collins has the offensive potential to hit 25.5 on just points, and he’s capable of a double-digit rebounding game, too.
Utah does play at a slow pace, so Atlanta’s possessions will be limited. And Utah is respectable defensively. But Collins looks like a safe play tonight, so roll him out there and smash the Over.
19.5 PTS + REBS vs. Houston — UNDER (105 PTS)
Kyle Anderson’s minutes have declined month by month. In four December games, he was playing 32.5 minutes per game. In 10 January games, he went down to 27.7 per game. And now two games into February, Anderson’s playing 23.5 minutes.
You need time on the floor to produce counting stats. Anderson did manage to go Over 19.5 on Feb. 1 with a 17-point, eight-rebound performance, but he’s failed to exceed 19.5 in eight of his last 10 games.
There are a handful of factors working on our favor here. Anderson isn’t a particularly efficient scorer, and he doesn’t get to the free-throw line that often. With Ja Morant healthy, Anderson doesn’t get as many offensive looks as before, either.
Houston pushes the pace, so there might be more opportunities when he’s on the court, but Anderson hasn’t been impressive lately. Play the Under.
27.5 PTS @ Dallas — OVER (95 PTS)
Stephen Curry has hit 50 percent or more of his three-pointers in six of his last eight games after a curiously slow start to the season and just a so-so next chunk of games. He’s finally re-discovered his stroke, and the points are coming.
Curry’s opponent, Dallas, plays at a slow pace but still allows 109.5 points per 100 possessions, 12th highest in the NBA. That’s hardly the worst defense, but the Mavericks are exploitable.
When I see a Curry prop with points and it’s just in the mid-20s, I’m taking the Over on it. Is the point total for a correct pick going to propel you to first place? Probably not at just 95. But it’s a good way to anchor your squad with a few points that look easy to attain.
For more sports opinions and other rants about things you probably don’t care about, follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter.
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