Quarterback play is so often the focus of the Super Bowl, but maybe more so than ever this year. Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T., and Patrick Mahomes is the present and future.
Mahomes sets the field ablaze whenever he lines up under center, and if you’re playing props this Sunday, you’re more than likely considering at least one of his pass catchers.
Mahomes’ options are both reliable and volatile. You can bank on someone going off. Sometimes two guys.
Let’s break down his options and which prop plays look best.
0.5 TD — OVER (90 PTS)
Might as well start with the most explosive player on the field for either team. It goes without saying that Tyreek Hill is a big play waiting to happen, a track star waiting for the opening to turn a short slant into a home run.
But he’s more than just a catch-and-run threat. Hill was fifth in the NFL in red zone targets (23), hauling in 16 of 23 for eight scores.
We also know he’s a target machine (135, second on the Chiefs) and a deep play threat, evidenced by his average depth of target of 12.9 yards, which is the highest on the Chiefs.
Let’s also remember Hills’ absurd Week 12 against the Bucs, a game in which he caught 13 of 15 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns. Don’t think twice. Lock the Over on Hill.Embed from Getty Images
95.5 REC YDS — OVER (100 PTS)
Looking back to Week 12, Travis Kelce took a backseat to Hill — but so did everybody. Kelce still brought in all eight targets for 82 yards, a respectable output, for sure. Expect more on Sunday.
Kelce led the team in targets (145), yards (1,416) and first downs (79). He’s Mahomes’ safety blanket and most reliable option. In the Super Bowl, Mahomes should look to him often.
Tampa Bay is neither terrible nor great against tight ends, ranking in the middle of pack in terms of receptions allowed (86), yards allowed (832) and touchdowns allowed (nine) against the position.
Regardless of the stats, Kelce is a matchup nightmare who is too big for a traditional corner and too speedy for a linebacker. My expectation is for Kelce to be the Chiefs’ leading receiver in terms of yards. Go Over.
33.5 REC YDS — UNDER (105 PTS)
Mecole Hardman is clearly behind Hill and Kelce on the depth chart and often farther down the route tree. Plus, Sammy Watkins, who hasn’t played since Week 16, is feeling better and “optimistic” about playing Sunday.
I’m taking the Under here, fully recognizing that this is the type of play that could backfire on just one catch. Hardman is young and has big play potential, though he’s yet to fully realize his talents.
With Watkins back, Hardman is very clearly option No. 4 on the offense. Even without Watkins, Hardman’s prospects aren’t great. Don’t forget Demarcus Robinson, another receiver vying for looks.
Hardman is the least sure thing out of the options available, so take the Under here.
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