Have a case of the Wednesdays? Spice up your hump day with a few high risk props.
Of the three players highlighted below, we’re sandwiching a couple of risks around a prop that seems like a slam dunk (please forgive the intended pun).
It’s a 10-game slate, so there are certainly plenty of options to choose from. Let’s ride with these three guys all the way to the top of our contests.
16.5 REBS + ASTS @ Atlanta — UNDER (115 PTS)
Are we actually going to bet the Under on Luka Doncic? The superstar is averaging close to a triple-double this season, but he hasn’t reached double-digits in rebounds or assists in four straight games and five of his last six.
His minutes haven’t changed, so it’s not a matter of losing the opportunity to rack up counting stats. The Mavericks are fully healthy, though, so with players assuming their normal roles, maybe Doncic has cooled off just a bit. And given the fact that the Mavs have lost six straight and nine of 11, his teammates just aren’t firing on enough cylinders for him to accumulate the numbers he did earlier in the season.
Atlanta, his Wednesday opponent, is tied for ninth in the league in defensive efficiency (107 points in 100 possessions) and tied for 16th in pace (101.9 possessions per game). Neither of those numbers indicate that this will be a run-and-gun shootout, so Doncic won’t even have pace in his favor.
It’s just a hunch that Doncic will be Under, but a player of his caliber can obviously dominate a slate on any night. Let’s take a risk and play the Under anyway.
23.5 PTS + REBS @ Oklahoma City — OVER (95 PTS)
Boogie’s minutes are all over the map, but even in 20 or so minutes, a prop of 23.5 PTS + REBS is attainable.
Take his last game, for example. Cousins played 21 minutes and scored 17 points (on 5 of 14 shooting) and hauled in eight rebounds. The important thing to note here is that he attempted 14 shots in 21 minutes, including nine from the three-point line.
It’s hard to pin down Cousins’ usage, in large part because Houston is healthy and Christian Wood is a force down low. But Cousins sees somewhat meaningful minutes most nights and can take advantage of opportunities when on the floor.
Thinking he’ll hit the Over is a pretty safe bet.
15.5 PTS @ New Orleans — OVER (110 PTS)
New Orleans is the sixth-worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency (110.7 points allowed per 100 possessions), and the Pelicans don’t quite have anyone who can bump bodies with DeAndre Ayton down low if Steven Adams misses Wednesday’s game (he’s currently day-to-day with a calf injury).
Ayton is long and can play well in the post in this matchup against a soft defense. Scoring isn’t necessarily why Ayton is on the court, but he’s taken 16 and 12 shots in his last two games, respectively. That amount of shots with his normally high field-goal percentage could yield a decent point total.
Dario Saric is out through the remainder of the road trip, so Phoenix’s No. 2 center isn’t part of the equation. That could mean a little more run for Ayton, which is another reason to feel good about this one.
Go Over and trust in the young big man.
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