It’s a 12-game NBA slate on Wednesday, indicating that it should be an action-packed night in the Association.
We’re riding hot streaks with our picks tonight, going through box scores and game logs to discover trends that could help us as we build our Wednesday lineups. We tried to do that Tuesday night, but Julius Randle and Donovan Mitchell both laid eggs. Oh well. It happens.
Let’s start a new streak of our own tonight.
14.5 REBS + ASTS vs. Oklahoma City — OVER (105 PTS)
With Devin Booker out with a hamstring injury for the second game in a row, expect Chris Paul to be even more of a floor general. The all-time great already orchestrates much of the offense, but with Booker out of the lineup, the Suns need to make up for his 29.3 percent share in the offense.
Paul, of course, won’t make up for the offensive production, but with the ball in his hands more, he can distribute even more. Saturday’s game went to double-overtime, so he had more time to produce counting stats in Booker’s first game out, but he dropped 13 assists with nine rebounds.
Paul is always a candidate for 10-plus assists, making his path to 14.5 REBS + ASTS pretty clear. It’s a small risk, hence the point total, but take it. Go Over.
25.5 PTS + ASTS @ Phoenix — OVER (100 PTS)
We played Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in his last game, and the risk paid off. Let’s do it again.
Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 23 points in four of his past five games, giving him a safe floor. At that rate, he’d need just a few assists to eclipse the over. He’s also averaging 7.6 assists in his last five games, which gives me supreme confidence in this over.
The point total doesn’t reflect any risk, and maybe that’s because there’s barely any.
Given his volume, efficiency, usage and skills as a distributor, Gilgeous-Alexander is an easy Over tonight.Embed from Getty Images
17.5 PTS vs. Dallas — OVER (110 PTS)
Utah’s playing well and Mike Conley is shooting reasonably well from the floor. He’s at a 46.5-percent clip in January, and he’s scored 17 points or more in each of his last three games.
He shoots 6.8 threes per game and averages 12.1 shots per game, numbers that yield a high-teens point total with an efficient outing. The key here is if he can get to the free-throw line. He got there six times in his last game (and made all six attempts), both of which represent his highest marks since Dec. 26.
If Conley can get to the stripe a handful of times, those couple of points could prove crucial to this prop. Both Dallas and Utah play in the lower-third of the league in terms of pace, so this likely won’t be a high-scoring affair. Still, Conley has been hot on offense.
I can see a path to 17-plus points, and you’ll get rewarded nicely with 110 points if he hits. Take a shot on the Over.
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