It’s another NBA Monday, folks. Let’s make some money moves.
It’s a 10-game slate, so there are plenty of options. Truth be told, it was a bit overwhelming sifting through each player to make picks tonight. We’re smashing three overs tonight, each of varying risk, to hopefully construct a lineup that can take down a couple of contests.
Start your week off right by banking on the following three guys to produce.
26.5 PTS @ Detroit — OVER (95 PTS)
Outside of a blowout win on Jan. 14 in which Joel Embiid played just 24 minutes, the big man has been on an offensive tear. That nine-point outing came after a 45-point outburst and was followed by games of 42, 38 and 33 points, respectively.
His last game was that 33-point showing against Detroit, his opponent tonight. Why expect anything much different?
The reason I’m confident in another big performance lies at the free-throw line. He’s averaging 17.7 attempts from the line in his past three games, and at his 83.3 percent clip for the season, that’s roughly 14 points from the stripe.
If you’re asking Embiid to then only make six or seven field goals? Count me in on that. Smash the Over.
33.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS @ Portland — OVER (105 PTS)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander takes a lot of shots (with relative efficiency), gets to the free-throw line and is usually good for a couple of three-pointers per night. That makes his path to 20-plus points extremely easy on a given night — hence his average of 21.7 points per game.
He’s averaging 25 per game over his last four with two 30-point outings. He’s eclipsed 33.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS in three of those four games.
Gilgeous-Alexander has continued his progression and is realistically the only offensive threat for the Thunder. He’s used on 26.4 percent of OKC’s possessions, the only Thunder player ranked in the top 50 (No. 42).
Add in the fact that Portland plays at a reasonably high pace (102.8 possessions per game, tied for 10th in the NBA), and I’m liking Gilgeous-Alexander’s chances for big numbers tonight.
22.5 PTS @ Golden State — OVER (110 PTS)
A streaky scorer who shoots a lot from deep, Russell is the type of guy who can go off on any given night. And if we’re going to be rewarded with 110 PTS if he just goes over 22.5, I’m taking those chances.
Russell takes 7.5 attempts from deep per game, which ranks 18th in the NBA. He’s also shooting 40 percent on those chances. Based on averages, he’s getting nine points per game on threes alone.
Then factor in a few trips to the line (where he gets 3.5 attempts per game) and his usual volume on shots inside the arc (a plentiful amount, usually), and Russell has an easy path to the Over.
There isn’t a whole lot in his way, even with rookie Anthony Edwards taking his fair share of shot attempts, too. With Karl-Anthony Towns still out, Russell can score big.
Russell did sit Saturday, though, so this is contingent upon his availability. Just make sure you double-check before lineups lock.
For more sports opinions and other rants about things you probably don’t care about, follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter.
Head on over to ThriveFantasy and build your lineup for our $20 NBA Monday – $2,000 Guaranteed Contest!