The final four teams are set! We have a game that features a battle of two of the greatest “old” quarterbacks, and one that features two young superstar QBs!
Below are my favorite prop picks and fades for the championship games on Sunday!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers
Favorite Prop: Mike Evans, Tampa Bay WR
O/U 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns – UNDER (115 Points)
This one is not so much a predication, but more of utilizing a great opportunity for points. Normally when a prop involves a specific player scoring at least one touchdown, the over is worth the most points. Not in this case though!
Including the playoffs, Mike Evans has scored 14 TDs this season. He has scored at least one TD in 11 out of 18 games, and is Tom Brady’s favorite Red Zone target.
Green Bay has only allowed 13 receiving touchdowns all season to WRs, which ties them for fourth fewest in the league. On the flipside, Green Bay has allowed the eighth most rushing touchdowns this season to opposing running backs. I think the Bucs will try to run the ball more in goal line situations.
Choosing the under presents you with 115 points right away, and if Evans does score a touchdown, you’re only missing out on 85 points.Embed from Getty Images
Favorite Fade: Davante Adams, Green Bay WR
O/U 94.5 Receiving Yards
This one is a true toss up. On one hand you have Davante Adams who was top-5 in all the major receiving categories this season. On the other hand you have The Buccaneers who rank in the bottom half in defense against WRs. Wait… that sounds promising for Adams!
Adams has piled up 106 or more receiving yards in a game seven times this year. In his other eight games he had 66 yards or less.
Tampa Bay has given up 95+ yards to eight different receivers this season, but in only six games.
It’s too difficult to confidently predict what the outcome will be for Adams, and for that reason, I’m fading.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Favorite Prop: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo WR
O/U 4.5 Receptions – OVER (70 points)
I don’t love this pick from a leverage standpoint because it yields the lowest possible points of the weekend. However, it feels like free points!
I know nothing is “free” and nothing can be guaranteed, but this pick feels fairly safe. Not only did Diggs lead the league in targets and receptions this year, he also would have beat the OVER on this prop in 17 of his 18 games this year!
If you’re not feeling this pick, I’m also liking Travis Kelce this week. Fellow ThriveFantasy writer, Patrick O’Brien, wrote about it here.Embed from Getty Images
Favorite Fade: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City WR
O/U 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns
Patrick Mahomes loves to spread the ball around. In fact, with the exception of Tyreek Hill and Kelce, the next four pass-catchers on the Chiefs all had between 36 and 45 catches on the season.
Hardman falls right in the middle of the pack with 41 catches on the season. Four of those catches were for a TD.
If you want to take a gamble, you could try the OVER for 120 points. Otherwise, I’m avoiding this pick all together.
If you would like more content from Charlie “Chip,” you can check out the sports podcast he co-hosts via LinkTree.
Pick Your Side of the Props in ThriveFantasy’s NFL Championship Contests and Compete for Over $10K in Prizes! Sign Up Today with Code BLOG and Receive an Instant Match up to $50 on Your First Deposit.