Well, Kyrie Irving certainly surprised us last night, didn’t he? James Harden shockingly took something of a backseat to Irving (and to Kevin Durant, which isn’t as out of the ordinary), so I’ll take the “L” on last night’s prediction.
Moving forward, I still expect some fluctuation on a nightly basis with the Nets’ offense. So maybe we should shift into a wait-and-see approach with Brooklyn until a pattern forms. After all, patience is just as important as research when analyzing player props.
As for tonight, we’re smashing the Over on the following three guys.
35.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS @ Utah — OVER (105 PTS)
Zion Williamson has exceeded 35.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS in five straight games. Is now the time to bet against that?
Williamson has been both efficient and prolific shooting over 73 percent from the floor in consecutive games. His rebounding numbers in those games are low (six and five, respectively), but when he’s dropping 30-plus points, does that really matter to us playing props?
To make this even sweeter, Williamson just played Utah two nights ago and dropped 32 points, five rebounds and three assists.
This isn’t much of a risk, and Williamson is playing with the upside you’d expect from a former No. 1 pick. Take the Over.
20.5 PTS + ASTS @ Golden State — OVER (100 PTS)
RJ Barrett has made significant strides this season, taking advantage of both opportunity and the personnel around him to blossom into a legitimate option for the Knicks. Just take a look at his last four games.
He’s scored at least 19 points in all four and chipped in at least three assists in each one, too. This while playing big minutes, which he’s done all season at a whopping 37.1 per game.
Barrett is on the floor a ton and a useful piece in the Knicks’ offense. His usage rate of 23.6 percent ranks 59th in the NBA, which doesn’t seem glamorous, but touching the ball on nearly 25 percent of the Knicks’ offensive sets is indicative in their trust in him.
Against a Golden State team that plays in some high-scoring contests, lock in the Over on Barrett.
Kelly Oubre Jr.
16.5 PTS vs. New York — OVER (110 PTS)
This pick is admittedly risky, so let’s just call this a hunch.
Oubre isn’t a particularly efficient offensive player, but he’s averaging 12.5 shots per game and seems to have made a more concerted effort to get to the free-throw line in the past three games, averaging six attempts from the stripe per game since Jan. 14.
If Oubre has a game when he can hit close to 50 percent of his shots and make a handful of free throws, 16.5 points is certainly within reach. He’s eclipsed 16.5 points just four times in 14 games, so again, this is the risky play of the night.
But hey, call me crazy. If the Knicks, a surprisingly competent defensive team, can do anything to slow down Stephen Curry, then maybe Oubre becomes that much-needed secondary option on offense.
Take a shot at the Over.
For more sports opinions and other rants about things you probably don’t care about, follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter.
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