Just because it’s only a two-game NBA slate Tuesday night doesn’t mean you should take a day off.
Playing a two-game slate means there’s little room for error. Unless the slate explodes with an unexpected great performance — or, likewise, a surprising flop — small slates usually mean that chalk wins. In that case, you can take one of two approaches.
First, you can play the safe route, capitalizing on the props that almost seem too easy to pass up — even if the point totals associated with that prop aren’t the highest. You might not take down the whole contest, but you should have enough points to place in the money.
Second, you can take the big risks on the highest point totals and see if it pays off. I prefer the former, so here are three props that look too good to pass up.
24.5 PTS + ASTS @ Utah — OVER (100 PTS)
In January, Zion Williamson has been scoring efficiently. He’s shooting 59.6 percent from the field and managed to make 13 of 15 field goal attempts in his last game. At 24.5 PTS + ASTS, you can very easily bank on Williamson’s scoring to exceed this mark on its own.
He’s scored 26 points or more in three of his past four games, the only outlier being a 21-point showing on Jan. 15. In that game, he had four assist, which would have pushed him past the 24.5 threshold.
Utah is strong defensively and plays at a slower pace, both of which aren’t necessarily conducive to offensive success. But this means New Orleans will need Williamson to do more while he’s on the court as the type offensive player.
You can be confident taking the Over here.
7.5 ASTS vs. Oklahoma City — OVER (80 PTS)
Eighty points isn’t a lot. But neither is 7.5 ASTS for Nikola Jokic, who is leading the league in assists per game. The big man is dishing out 10.3 per night and leads the NBA with a PER of 31.46. He’s the early MVP frontrunner and is putting together one of the best seasons by a big man in league history.
There isn’t much analysis to be made here. He’s had fewer than eight assists in just three games this season, meaning he’s had 10 games in which he’s hit the Over.
No reason to stray from the norm here. Take the free 80 points and go Over.Embed from Getty Images
31.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS vs. New Orleans — OVER (100 PTS)
You’re probably not worried about the points here. Donovan Mitchell is averaging 24.1 points per game in January. It’s the rebounds and assists that have fluctuated on a nightly basis.
You can probably count on Mitchell for three or four rebounds and somewhere around five assists. Adding that together and saying he’ll get eight total (just to be conservative), that would mean he’d need 24 points to hit the Over.
New Orleans is not great defensively (108.1 points allowed per 100 possessions), which means Mitchell shouldn’t have a problem scoring. Of course, he’s shown to be the type of player who can hit the Over on 31.5 on points alone.
With that possibility in your back pocket and the prop total not exceedingly large, take the safe bet and play the Over.
For more sports opinions and other rants about things you probably don’t care about, follow Kenny DeJohn on Twitter.
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