The final two games of the Divisional Round take place Sunday! They’re both predicted to be high scoring, so they should be fun ones!
As always, below I will present my favorite prop picks and fades for each game.Embed from Getty Images
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Favorite Prop: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland QB
O/U 235.5 Passing Yards – OVER (95 points)
Cleveland has established themselves as a running team, and I fully expect them to roll with their two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt this weekend. If they can control the game with their running backs, then this Mayfield pick will likely flop.
However, Kansas City is favored by 10 points in this game, and I don’t think Patrick Mahomes will have trouble scoring against this Browns defense.
Mayfield and the Browns will likely need to start passing to keep up. The Chiefs rank right in the middle for pass defense, and Mayfield has thrown for over 250 yards in six of his last seven games.
Favorite Fade: Tyreek Hill, Kansas City WR
O/U 104.5 Receiving Yards
I know I just got done saying Kansas City is going to score a lot this weekend, and the Browns defense is not strong. You’re probably thinking, “wait, doesn’t that mean Hill should get the OVER?” Yes, he easily could, but look at this:
Hill only has three games this season where he achieved over 100 yards, and all three of those games were consecutive (weeks 9-12). In fact, Hill has over 100 rec. yards in 15 career games, out of a possible 74 games played. He would beat this specific OVER in just 13 of those games! (Stats from Pro Football Reference)
Yes, Hill has the ability and matchup to get OVER 104.5 yards, but he also has a high probability to get the UNDER, resulting in a fade for me.Embed from Getty Images
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Favorite Prop: Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans WR
O/U 3.5 Receptions – UNDER (115 points)
I’m getting contrarian with this one! There were not a lot of props in this game that I would consider my favorite, especially ones that were worth enough points. This one presents some good value.
Emmanuel Sanders has played eight games this season with Michael Thomas. In those eight games, Sanders has had three or less catches in five of them. With a healthy Alvin Kamara and Thomas, Drew Brees will have plenty of options.
The thing to keep an eye on is if Jared Cook will play. As of right now, he has been questionable all week. If Cook does not play, then I would be a bit more leery of picking the UNDER here.
Favorite Fade: Taysom Hill, New Orleans QB
O/U 0.5 Rushing + Receiving Touchdowns
From a fantasy standpoint, I cannot stand Taysom Hill. He’ll do absolutely nothing for a few games, then BAM! out of nowhere he gets a touchdown or two.
Hill appeared in 13 games this season, not including the ones where he filled in for Brees. In six of those games he had a non-passing TD. I am simply not confident enough to make a choice here.
If you would like more content from Charlie “Chip,” you can check out the sports podcast he co-hosts via Twitter
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