We’re down to the final eight teams, and the matchups look to be entertaining ones this weekend! We had some close picks last weekend (literally one yard difference on a few), but I’m going to do my best to present my favorite picks and favorite fades for each game below!

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers

Favorite Prop: Davante Adams, Green Bay WR
O/U 110.5 Receiving Yards – UNDER (100 points)

Davante Adams vs Jalen Ramsey might be the unofficial fifth “game” to watch this weekend. Both these players are at the top of their respective positions, and have been having career defining years. Ramsey has done a tremendous job this season of shutting down some of the other top receivers in the league. A small breakdown can be found here from NFL.com writer Kevin Patra.

As for Adams, he definitely has the tools and talent to still be heavily involved in this game, and early reports suggest he might play more from the slot this weekend. While he has surpassed 110.5 yards in six games this season, four of those games were against nine of the worst pass defense teams. The Rams currently rank #1, according to ESPN.

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Favorite Fade: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles TE
O/U 0.5 Receiving Touchdowns

Blindly looking at the stats would show Higbee had the second most receiving touchdowns for the Rams this season with five. If you can remember all the way back to week two, Higbee had three touchdowns in one game against the Eagles! That’s 60% of his season total in one game (good math, I know).

The odds of Higbee getting a TD against the Packers this weekend is very low, and choosing the UNDER is only worth 75 points. For those reasons, I’m avoiding this pick

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Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

Favorite Prop: Josh Allen, Buffalo QB
O/U 310.5 Passing + Rushing Yards – OVER (100 points)

This pick is in no means a safe one. Baltimore is a top 10 defense across multiple categories, but they have shown some weakness towards mobile quarterbacks this season.

Zack Moss, the Bills’ rookie running back, is out for the season after suffering an ankle injury last week. This opens the door for more rushing attempts for fellow RB Devin Singletary (who has an enticing OVER option as well).

With only one primary running back this weekend, I think Josh Allen will take more carries than usual, which will hopefully translate to more rushing yards to push him over 310.5 total yards.

Favorite Fade: Mark Andrews, Baltimore TE
O/U 3.5 Receptions

Mark Andrews tied Marquise Brown for most receptions on the Ravens this season. He also has not had less than four catches in a game since week 9. This week, Andrews faces a Bills defense which allowed the most catches to tight ends this season!

If you simply want some points for your prop bets, picking the OVER is a no-brainer, but at only 70 points, it might not advance you very far in the rankings.

If you would like more content from Charlie “Chip,” you can check out the sports podcast he co-hosts via Twitter

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