6.5 REBS + ASTS vs. Utah — UNDER (115 PTS)
Collin Sexton is doing a lot of the heavy lifting on offense for the Cavaliers, averaging 25.2 points per game (11th in the NBA). He doesn’t spend much time on the glass, though, and because the offense mostly runs through him, he doesn’t rack up assists with much consistency.
He’s only hit the Over on 6.5 REBS + ASTS twice this season, once in the season-opener (two rebounds, five assists), and also in his last game (three rebounds, four assists).
He’s never blown past that mark, and for him to just hit the Over, you’re likely looking for him to get at least three rebounds and assists each — something he’s only done twice.
Go Under and get 115 points.Embed from Getty Images
33.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS vs. Denver — OVER (105 PTS)
No Kyrie Irving? Plug in Caris LeVert and don’t think twice.
In three games without Irving on the floor, LeVert has averaged 28.7 points, 7.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds. One of those games was also without Kevin Durant. But add that together, and you get a total that far exceeds 33.5.
That might be a pretty rudimentary way of looking at things, but LeVert has proven in the past that he can play like a leading man. Without Irving, he’s the clear No. 2 behind Durant.
While Denver ranks 25th in the NBA in pace, the Nets rank fourth. This game, pacing-wise, should fall somewhere in the middle, setting LeVert up for plenty of opportunities to stockpile counting stats.
Play the Over.
39.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS @ Golden State — UNDER (95 PTS)
Domantas Sabonis has been lighting up box scores, but he actually hasn’t been incredibly efficient. Based on his PER of 20.90, he’s been the 38th most efficient player in the league.
Indiana plays at a reasonable pace (102.8 possessions per game, tied for 13th), so he’ll always have a decent number of opportunities for counting stats. but asking for him to hit the Over on 39.5 PTS + REBS + ASTS is asking a lot.
His outstanding last two games (28 points, 22 rebounds, four assists and 28 points, 11 rebounds, three assists) have likely helped give you confidence in the Gonzaga product. But prior to those outbursts, he consistently sat in the mid-30s when adding all three categories together.
It’s not a huge risk to play the Under, but I think it’s the right play.
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